Chris Mierzwiak vs Takashi Sato
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record15-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Jorge GurgelTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563
If they win+12→ 1591
If they lose-12→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris MierzwiakTakashi Sato
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Mierzwiak59%
Takashi Sato 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Mierzwiak a 59% favorite over Takashi Sato in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1579 vs 1579), separated by just 0 points.
Chris Mierzwiak enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Takashi Sato enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Chris Mierzwiak finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Takashi Sato 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.