Chris Padilla vs Chris Weidman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-1Record16-8-0
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'2"
74"Reach78"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
California Mixed Martial ArtsTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1733 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaChris Weidman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla70%
Chris Weidman 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 70% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Weidman's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1705), separated by just 2 points.
Chris Padilla enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Chris Weidman 63%.
Chris Weidman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.