Chris Wade vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record29-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach70"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
East Islip KickboxingTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Chris Wade carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1710
If they lose-5→ 1686
If they win+5→ 1936
If they lose-19→ 1912
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WadeIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev92%
Chris Wade 8%Elo baseline: 80%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Chris Wade in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1691, a 240-point edge.
Chris Wade enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Chris Wade finishes 35% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.