Chris Wade vs Mehdi Baghdad
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
70,0"Reach40,0"
149 lbsWeight170 lbs
East Islip KickboxingTeamBlack House
What's at stake
Chris Wade is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Mehdi Baghdad carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1691
If they lose-15→ 1667
If they win+20→ 1605
If they lose-12→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WadeMehdi Baghdad
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Wade70%
Mehdi Baghdad 30%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Wade a 70% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Chris Wade holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1585, a 97-point edge.
Chris Wade enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Wade finishes 35% of wins inside the distance, Mehdi Baghdad 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.