Chris Weidman vs Demian Maia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record28-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Weidman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1692
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanDemian Maia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demian Maia60%
Chris Weidman 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 60% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1705, a 69-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.