Chris Weidman vs Dominick Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
78"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness· 1650 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chris Weidman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1691
If they win+14→ 1762
If they lose-18→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanDominick Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes73%
Chris Weidman 27%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 73% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1705, a 43-point edge.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Dominick Reyes 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.