Chris Weidman vs Gegard Mousasi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record49-9-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamTeam Jurojin
What's at stake
Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Chris Weidman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1728
If they lose-9→ 1696
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanGegard Mousasi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gegard Mousasi78%
Chris Weidman 22%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 78% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1705, a 151-point edge.
Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Gegard Mousasi 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.