Chris Weidman vs Jesse Bongfeldt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record17-6-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamCanadian Martial Arts Centre
What's at stake
Chris Weidman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jesse Bongfeldt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1717
If they lose-20→ 1685
If they win+15→ 1636
If they lose-9→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanJesse Bongfeldt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Weidman72%
Jesse Bongfeldt 28%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Weidman a 72% favorite over Jesse Bongfeldt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Chris Weidman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1621, a 84-point edge.
Jesse Bongfeldt enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Bongfeldt 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.