Chris Weidman vs John Castañeda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record21-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionBantamweight
6'2"Height5'7"
78"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamThe Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanJohn Castañeda
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda66%
Chris Weidman 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 66% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Weidman's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1696), separated by just 9 points.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.
Chris Weidman carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.