Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record16-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
78"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Luke Rockhold is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chris Weidman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1691
If they win+14→ 1756
If they lose-18→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanLuke Rockhold
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Rockhold70%
Chris Weidman 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Rockhold a 70% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Luke Rockhold holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1705, a 37-point edge.
Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.
Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold share 1 common opponent: Yoel Romero.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.