Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
78"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamAPAM
What's at stake
Chris Weidman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1720
If they lose-17→ 1688
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Weidman66%
Lyoto Machida 34%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Weidman a 66% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Chris Weidman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1685, a 20-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Chris Weidman and Lyoto Machida share 3 common opponents: Eryk Anders, Gegard Mousasi and Yoel Romero.
Chris Weidman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.