Chris Weidman vs Nkosi Ndebele
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record14-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionBantamweight
6'2"Height5'10"
78"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNova MMA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanNkosi Ndebele
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nkosi Ndebele83%
Chris Weidman 17%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nkosi Ndebele a 83% favorite over Chris Weidman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1707), separated by just 2 points.
Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 50%.
Chris Weidman carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.