Chris Weidman vs Tom Lawlor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record11-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamThe Jungle MMA
What's at stake
Chris Weidman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tom Lawlor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1716
If they lose-21→ 1684
If they win+21→ 1604
If they lose-11→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanTom Lawlor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Weidman72%
Tom Lawlor 28%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Weidman a 72% favorite over Tom Lawlor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Chris Weidman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1583, a 122-point edge.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.
Chris Weidman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.