Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Edwards vs Modestas Bukauskas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record20-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
78"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamGintas Combat

What's at stake

Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Christian Edwards carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Christian EdwardsNow 1567
If they win+22→ 1589
If they lose-10→ 1557
Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+7→ 1714
If they lose-17→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.24
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.05
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.26
TBD
Takedown accuracy
67%
TBD
Takedown defense
79%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Christian EdwardsModestas Bukauskas
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
1 (13%)
Submission
3 (15%)
2 (25%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Modestas Bukauskas71%
Christian Edwards 29%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 71% favorite over Christian Edwards in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1567, a 140-point edge.

Christian Edwards finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.