Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Leroy Duncan vs Ronaldo Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
79"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Range Martial Arts AcademyTeamFusion X-Cel Performance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Christian Leroy DuncanNow 1747
If they win+16→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1731
Ronaldo SouzaNow 1749
If they win+12→ 1761
If they lose-12→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.43
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
58%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
53%
Strike defense
62%
0.33
Takedown avg.
2.57
17%
Takedown accuracy
39%
63%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Christian Leroy DuncanRonaldo Souza
165017001750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
1 (7%)
Submission
14 (54%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Christian Leroy Duncan73%
Ronaldo Souza 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Christian Leroy Duncan a 73% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1749), separated by just 2 points.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.

Christian Leroy Duncan carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.