Christian Wellisch vs Shane Carwin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
234 lbsWeight254 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Christian Wellisch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1560
If they lose-10→ 1528
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-22→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Christian WellischShane Carwin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Carwin63%
Christian Wellisch 37%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Carwin a 63% favorite over Christian Wellisch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1538, a 136-point edge.
Christian Wellisch finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.