Combat Edge Intelligence

Christopher Collins vs Justin McElfresh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record6-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'6"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Christopher CollinsNow 1524
If they win+23→ 1547
If they lose-25→ 1499
Justin McElfreshNow 1516
If they win+16→ 1532
If they lose-16→ 1500

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.59
TBD
Strike accuracy
27%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
12.79
TBD
Strike defense
42%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Christopher CollinsJustin McElfresh
15001550160020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
1 (50%)
Submission
3 (50%)
1 (50%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Christopher Collins79%
Justin McElfresh 21%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Christopher Collins a 79% favorite over Justin McElfresh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1524 vs 1516), separated by just 8 points.

Justin McElfresh 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.