Combat Edge Intelligence

Christos Giagos vs Gilbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-12-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach 71"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black HouseTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Christos Giagos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Christos GiagosNow 1611
If they win+16→ 1627
If they lose-8→ 1603
Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1676 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1777 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.03
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
51%
Strike defense
52%
2.84
Takedown avg.
2.12
37%
Takedown accuracy
38%
52%
Takedown defense
54%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Christos GiagosGilbert Burns
1600165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
6 (27%)
4 (20%)
Submission
9 (41%)
8 (40%)
Decision
7 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns76%
Christos Giagos 24%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 76% favorite over Christos Giagos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1611, a 133-point edge.

Christos Giagos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Christos Giagos finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Burns 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.