Combat Edge Intelligence

Ciaran Clarke vs Colby Thicknesse

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record9-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'9"
66"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamFreestyle Fighting Gym· 1735 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ciaran ClarkeNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652
Colby ThicknesseNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
9%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Ciaran ClarkeColby Thicknesse
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
5 (50%)
Submission
2 (22%)
4 (40%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Ciaran Clarke and Colby Thicknesse within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1667), separated by just 1 points.

Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Ciaran Clarke finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Colby Thicknesse 44%.

Colby Thicknesse carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.