Ciryl Gane vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
81"Reach79"
250 lbsWeight264 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Ciryl Gane is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1841
If they lose-20→ 1809
If they win+15→ 1759
If they lose-9→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ciryl GaneDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ciryl Gane87%
Derrick Lewis 13%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Ciryl Gane a 87% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Ciryl Gane holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1744, a 85-point edge.
Ciryl Gane enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ciryl Gane finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Ciryl Gane and Derrick Lewis share 2 common opponents: Serghei Spivac and Tai Tuivasa.
Ciryl Gane carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.