Ciryl Gane vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
81"Reach77"
250 lbsWeight250 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Ciryl Gane is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1837
If they lose-24→ 1805
If they win+18→ 1660
If they lose-6→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ciryl GaneJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ciryl Gane92%
Junior dos Santos 8%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Ciryl Gane a 92% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Ciryl Gane holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1642, a 187-point edge.
Ciryl Gane enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ciryl Gane finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Ciryl Gane and Junior dos Santos share 4 common opponents: Tai Tuivasa, Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Ciryl Gane carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.