Ciryl Gane vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
81"Reach84"
250 lbsWeight260 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Ciryl Gane is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Sergei Pavlovich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1847
If they lose-17→ 1815
If they win+17→ 1826
If they lose-15→ 1794
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ciryl GaneSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich51%
Ciryl Gane 49%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 51% favorite over Ciryl Gane in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ciryl Gane's way (47%).
Ciryl Gane holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1832 to 1809, a 23-point edge.
Ciryl Gane enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ciryl Gane finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich share 4 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (4)
WinDecision (split) · 2024
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2024