Claudia Gadelha vs Jessica Aguilar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record20-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'3"
TBDReach63,0"
115 lbsWeight107 lbs
Luttrell-Yee MMATeamLiborio Experience
What's at stake
Claudia Gadelha is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jessica Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-20→ 1679
If they win+15→ 1627
If they lose-9→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Claudia GadelhaJessica Aguilar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Claudia Gadelha83%
Jessica Aguilar 17%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Claudia Gadelha a 83% favorite over Jessica Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Claudia Gadelha holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1612, a 87-point edge.
Jessica Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Claudia Gadelha finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jessica Aguilar 50%.
Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Aguilar share 1 common opponent: Cortney Casey.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.