Claudio Puelles vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
72"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Claudio Puelles is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1662
If they lose-18→ 1630
If they win+14→ 1613
If they lose-10→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Claudio PuellesClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Claudio Puelles73%
Clay Guida 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Claudio Puelles a 73% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Claudio Puelles holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1599, a 49-point edge.
Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Claudio Puelles finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Claudio Puelles and Clay Guida share 1 common opponent: Joaquim Silva.
Claudio Puelles carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.