Combat Edge Intelligence

Clay Collard vs Max Holloway

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-13-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73.00"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Four7 Training CenterTeamGracie Technics

What's at stake

Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Clay Collard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clay CollardNow 1635
If they win+18→ 1653
If they lose-6→ 1629
Max HollowayNow 1830
If they win+6→ 1836
If they lose-18→ 1812

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.22
Sig. strikes / min
6.91
32%
Strike accuracy
48%
5
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.61
51%
Strike defense
59%
2.81
Takedown avg.
0.23
39%
Takedown accuracy
53%
71%
Takedown defense
81%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Clay CollardMax Holloway
1600170018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
13 (46%)
3 (12%)
Submission
2 (7%)
10 (40%)
Decision
13 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Max Holloway92%
Clay Collard 8%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 92% favorite over Clay Collard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1635, a 195-point edge.

Clay Collard enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Clay Collard finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.

Clay Collard carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.