Combat Edge Intelligence

Clay Collard vs Richie Smullen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-13-0Record15-5-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73.00"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Four7 Training CenterTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Clay CollardNow 1635
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Richie SmullenNow 1635
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.22
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
32%
Strike accuracy
78%
5
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.26
51%
Strike defense
65%
2.81
Takedown avg.
8.49
39%
Takedown accuracy
67%
71%
Takedown defense
0%
0.51
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Clay CollardRichie Smullen
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
3 (12%)
Submission
6 (40%)
10 (40%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Richie Smullen60%
Clay Collard 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Richie Smullen a 60% favorite over Clay Collard in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Clay Collard's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1635), separated by just 0 points.

Clay Collard enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Richie Smullen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Clay Collard finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Richie Smullen 80%.

Clay Collard carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.