Clay Collard vs Tiago Trator
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-13-0Record22-9-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73.00"Reach70.00
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Four7 Training CenterTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
Clay Collard is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tiago Trator carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1644
If they lose-15→ 1620
If they win+30→ 1580
If they lose-18→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay CollardTiago Trator
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Collard66%
Tiago Trator 34%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Collard a 66% favorite over Tiago Trator in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Clay Collard holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1550, a 85-point edge.
Clay Collard enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Collard finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tiago Trator 64%.
Clay Collard and Tiago Trator share 1 common opponent: Shane Burgos.
Clay Collard carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.