Clay Collard vs Tom Niinimaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-13-0Record22-8-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73.00"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Four7 Training CenterTeamFinnfighters' Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1638
If they lose-12→ 1614
If they win+12→ 1638
If they lose-12→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay CollardTom Niinimaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Collard67%
Tom Niinimaki 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Collard a 67% favorite over Tom Niinimaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1626 vs 1626), separated by just 0 points.
Clay Collard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Collard finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tom Niinimaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.