Clay Guida vs Diego Sanchez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record30-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Diego Sanchez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1613
If they lose-9→ 1589
If they win+9→ 1690
If they lose-15→ 1666
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaDiego Sanchez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Sanchez66%
Clay Guida 34%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Sanchez a 66% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Diego Sanchez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1598, a 83-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Diego Sanchez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Diego Sanchez 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.