Clay Guida vs Din Thomas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record26-9-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight143 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Clay Guida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Din Thomas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1610
If they lose-13→ 1586
If they win+13→ 1588
If they lose-11→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaDin Thomas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Din Thomas58%
Clay Guida 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Din Thomas a 58% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Clay Guida's way (47%).
Clay Guida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1575, a 24-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Din Thomas 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.