Clay Guida vs Erik Koch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach71,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Erik Koch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1613
If they lose-10→ 1589
If they win+10→ 1654
If they lose-14→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1634 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaErik Koch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erik Koch75%
Clay Guida 25%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Erik Koch a 75% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Erik Koch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1599, a 45-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Erik Koch 75%.
Clay Guida and Erik Koch share 2 common opponents: King Green and Bobby Green.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2020
Loss Decision · 2018