Clay Guida vs Hatsu Hioki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record29-12-2
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamAlive
What's at stake
Hatsu Hioki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1612
If they lose-11→ 1588
If they win+11→ 1651
If they lose-13→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaHatsu Hioki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Hatsu Hioki66%
Clay Guida 34%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Hatsu Hioki a 66% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Hatsu Hioki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1599, a 41-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Hatsu Hioki 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.