Clay Guida vs Joaquim Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Joaquim Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1612
If they lose-10→ 1588
If they win+14→ 1664
If they lose-18→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaJoaquim Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joaquim Silva66%
Clay Guida 34%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Joaquim Silva a 66% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Joaquim Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1598, a 52-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Joaquim Silva 71%.
Clay Guida and Joaquim Silva share 1 common opponent: Claudio Puelles.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.