Clay Guida vs Marcus Aurelio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamElite Mixed Fighters
What's at stake
Marcus Aurelio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1613
If they lose-10→ 1589
If they win+10→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaMarcus Aurelio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcus Aurelio65%
Clay Guida 35%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Aurelio a 65% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Marcus Aurelio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1599, a 50-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.