Clay Guida vs Marcus Aurelio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamElite Mixed Fighters
What's at stake
Marcus Aurelio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1612
If they lose-10→ 1588
If they win+10→ 1658
If they lose-14→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaMarcus Aurelio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Guida57%
Marcus Aurelio 43%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Guida a 57% favorite over Marcus Aurelio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcus Aurelio's way (43%).
Marcus Aurelio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1598, a 50-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.