Clay Guida vs Mark Madsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record12-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Mark Madsen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1614
If they lose-9→ 1590
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-20→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaMark Madsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Madsen84%
Clay Guida 16%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Madsen a 84% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Mark Madsen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1696 to 1599, a 97-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mark Madsen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Mark Madsen 50%.
Mark Madsen carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.