Clay Guida vs Michael Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaMichael Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Johnson70%
Clay Guida 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 70% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1613), separated by just 14 points.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.
Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.