Clay Guida vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1613
If they lose-9→ 1589
If they win+9→ 1682
If they lose-15→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz74%
Clay Guida 26%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 74% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1598, a 75-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Clay Guida and Nate Diaz share 1 common opponent: Michael Johnson.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.