Clay Guida vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1614
If they lose-9→ 1590
If they win+9→ 1683
If they lose-15→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz76%
Clay Guida 24%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 76% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1599, a 75-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Clay Guida and Nate Diaz share 1 common opponent: Michael Johnson.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.