Clay Guida vs Oscar Ownsworth
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record10-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'1"
70"Reach-
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamManchester Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaOscar Ownsworth
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Oscar Ownsworth83%
Clay Guida 17%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Oscar Ownsworth a 83% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Clay Guida's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Oscar Ownsworth enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Oscar Ownsworth 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.