Clay Guida vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
If they win+8→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos72%
Clay Guida 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 72% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1599, a 114-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.