Clay Guida vs Rafaello Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1649 avg Elo · 19 ratedTeamAMA Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1610
If they lose-12→ 1586
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaRafaello Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Guida58%
Rafaello Oliveira 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Guida a 58% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1598), separated by just 0 points.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.