Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamVictory MMA
What's at stake
Clay Guida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Shannon Gugerty carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1608
If they lose-14→ 1584
If they win+19→ 1553
If they lose-13→ 1521
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaShannon Gugerty
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Guida66%
Shannon Gugerty 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Guida a 66% favorite over Shannon Gugerty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Clay Guida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1598 to 1534, a 64-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Shannon Gugerty 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.