Clay Guida vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record37-14-2
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach69.00
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamT-Blood
What's at stake
Tatsuya Kawajiri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
If they win+8→ 1735
If they lose-16→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaTatsuya Kawajiri
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatsuya Kawajiri75%
Clay Guida 25%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuya Kawajiri a 75% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Tatsuya Kawajiri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1727 to 1599, a 128-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuya Kawajiri 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.