Clay Guida vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record37-14-2
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach69.00
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamT-Blood
What's at stake
Tatsuya Kawajiri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-8→ 1590
If they win+8→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1718
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaTatsuya Kawajiri
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatsuya Kawajiri64%
Clay Guida 36%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuya Kawajiri a 64% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Tatsuya Kawajiri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1598, a 136-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuya Kawajiri 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.