Combat Edge Intelligence

Clay Harvison vs Justin Edwards

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Clay Harvison
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Clay Harvison

“Heavy Metal”

14-9-0WelterweightNFC

1525Average

Tale of the tape

14-9-0Record10-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
Madhouse TrainingTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

Justin Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clay Harvison carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clay HarvisonNow 1525
If they win+18→ 1543
If they lose-14→ 1511
Justin EdwardsNow 1577
If they win+14→ 1591
If they lose-18→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
48%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.32
59%
Strike defense
51%
0.66
Takedown avg.
2.14
100%
Takedown accuracy
27%
68%
Takedown defense
27%
1.32
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Clay HarvisonJustin Edwards
15501600201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (43%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
4 (29%)
Submission
8 (80%)
4 (29%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Edwards70%
Clay Harvison 30%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Edwards a 70% favorite over Clay Harvison in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Justin Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1577 to 1525, a 52-point edge.

Clay Harvison finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Justin Edwards 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.