Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Geane Herrera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record10-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamBanks MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Geane HerreraNow 1623
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
1.51
54%
Strike accuracy
31%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
56%
Strike defense
53%
1.99
Takedown avg.
0.83
46%
Takedown accuracy
38%
38%
Takedown defense
38%
1.33
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterGeane Herrera
16001650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
4 (50%)
Submission
6 (60%)
2 (25%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Clayton Carpenter60%
Geane Herrera 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Clayton Carpenter a 60% favorite over Geane Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1623), separated by just 4 points.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Geane Herrera 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.