Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Jafel Filho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clayton Carpenter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+18→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1613
Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+14→ 1683
If they lose-18→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
54%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
56%
Strike defense
50%
1.99
Takedown avg.
2.52
46%
Takedown accuracy
45%
38%
Takedown defense
67%
1.33
Submission avg.
2.24

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterJafel Filho
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
4 (50%)
Submission
11 (65%)
2 (25%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Jafel Filho60%
Clayton Carpenter 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Jafel Filho a 60% favorite over Clayton Carpenter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Jafel Filho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1627, a 42-point edge.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jafel Filho 94%.

Jafel Filho carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.