Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jose Ochoa
pe

Jose Ochoa

“Kalzifer”

9-2-0FlyweightUFC

1662Good

Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record9-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
66"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima

What's at stake

Jose Ochoa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clayton Carpenter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+18→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1613
Jose OchoaNow 1662
If they win+14→ 1676
If they lose-18→ 1644

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.01
54%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.99
Takedown avg.
0.43
46%
Takedown accuracy
50%
38%
Takedown defense
59%
1.33
Submission avg.
1.28

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterJose Ochoa
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
4 (50%)
Submission
1 (11%)
2 (25%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Jose Ochoa60%
Clayton Carpenter 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Jose Ochoa a 60% favorite over Clayton Carpenter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Jose Ochoa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1627, a 35-point edge.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jose Ochoa 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.