Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Juancamilo Ronderos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record4-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'3"
66"Reach64,5"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Clayton Carpenter is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Juancamilo Ronderos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+13→ 1640
If they lose-19→ 1608
Juancamilo RonderosNow 1555
If they win+29→ 1584
If they lose-19→ 1536

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
2.18
54%
Strike accuracy
31%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.18
56%
Strike defense
64%
1.99
Takedown avg.
2.72
46%
Takedown accuracy
33%
38%
Takedown defense
0%
1.33
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterJuancamilo Ronderos
155016001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
4 (50%)
Submission
2 (50%)
2 (25%)
Decision
2 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Clayton Carpenter60%
Juancamilo Ronderos 40%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Clayton Carpenter a 60% favorite over Juancamilo Ronderos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Clayton Carpenter holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1555, a 72-point edge.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Juancamilo Ronderos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Juancamilo Ronderos 50%.

Clayton Carpenter carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.