Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Lucas Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'2"
66"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamRenovacao Coari Team

What's at stake

Lucas Rocha is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Clayton Carpenter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+18→ 1645
If they lose-14→ 1613
Lucas RochaNow 1678
If they win+14→ 1692
If they lose-18→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
5.09
54%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.67
56%
Strike defense
56%
1.99
Takedown avg.
1.64
46%
Takedown accuracy
75%
38%
Takedown defense
76%
1.33
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
4 (50%)
Submission
4 (22%)
2 (25%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Rocha60%
Clayton Carpenter 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 60% favorite over Clayton Carpenter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Lucas Rocha holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1627, a 51-point edge.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.

Clayton Carpenter carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.