Combat Edge Intelligence

Cody Garbrandt vs Jafel Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'7"
65" Reach68"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+12→ 1683
If they lose-12→ 1659
Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.79
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
40%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
59%
Strike defense
50%
0.85
Takedown avg.
2.52
23%
Takedown accuracy
45%
82%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
2.24

Trajectory

Cody GarbrandtJafel Filho
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (73%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
11 (65%)
4 (27%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cody Garbrandt and Jafel Filho within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1669), separated by just 2 points.

Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Jafel Filho 94%.

Jafel Filho carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.