Cody Garbrandt vs Raphael Assunção
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record28-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
65" Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Raphael Assunção is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Cody Garbrandt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
If they win+11→ 1716
If they lose-13→ 1692
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1700 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cody GarbrandtRaphael Assunção
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cody Garbrandt57%
Raphael Assunção 43%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 57% favorite over Raphael Assunção in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raphael Assunção's way (45%).
Raphael Assunção holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1670, a 35-point edge.
Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Assunção 50%.
Cody Garbrandt and Raphael Assunção share 1 common opponent: Rob Font.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.